2QFY18 Result Updates - Kotak Mahindra Bank, Emami , Mindtree,Ambuja Cements, HCL Technologies & Hindustan Unilever

Kotak Mahindra Bank - 2QFY18 Result Update - Performance Continues to be Stable; Maintain BUY

Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB) has reported a healthy performance in 2QFY18 as both standalone and consolidated net profit recorded a healthy growth. Its standalone PAT grew by 22.3% YoY and 8.9% QoQ to Rs9.9bn on the back of healthy growth in customer assets (+20.7% YoY & +6.1% QoQ), best-in-class NIMs (4.3%) and strong growth in core fee income (+28.6% YoY & +0.6% QoQ). Further, the Bank’s consolidated PAT surged by 20% YoY  and 7% QoQ to Rs14.4bn backed by strong bottom line growth recorded by Kotak Prime (+15.4% YoY & 13.6% QoQ to Rs1.5bn), Kotak Life (+57.7% YoY and -2.9% QoQ to Rs1bn) and Kotak Securities (+22.9% YoY and -5.6% QoQ to Rs1.2bn). Customer assets growth was aided by 17.5% YTD and 6.4% QoQ growth in Corporate portfolio, 17.1% YTD and 13% QoQ growth small business & personal loans and 12.7% YTD and 6.7%% QoQ growth in CV/CE portfolio. Notably, the Bank has started getting benefitted from the full integration of erstwhile ING Vysya Bank (IVB) especially in post demonetisation period.

Management Commentary & Guidance

• The Bank has completed process of buying back the remaining 26% stake in Kotak Life from Old Mutual. Under the deal, Kotak Life was valued at Rs48.9bn.
• CASA ratio improved by 390bps QoQ to the record high of 47.8% led by 61.9% YoY and 21.5% QoQ growth in saving deposits. Strong growth in SA deposit was led by acquisition of new customers and some large government business.
• KMB will launch consumer finance business through its NBFC subsidiary i.e. Kotak Prime, which will help the Bank to optimally utilise the excess capital available at Kotak Prime.
• With the positive initial response to the Bank’s Digital 811 Account, the Management believes the traction would continue in FY18 as well. However, standalone opex was partially impacted due to higher advertising cost for same.
• The Bank has not received any materially adverse observation from the RBI in annual supervision audit for FY17.
• The Management has clearly indicated that apart from organic growth, the Bank will be continuously exploring suitable inorganic growth opportunities.

Outlook & Valuation

KMB has undoubtedly proven its competitive edge over its private sector peers with higher fee based income generation, asset quality management and effective management of financial business subsidiaries.  The Bank continues to witness moderation in SMA-2 balance, which clearly suggests stable asset quality trend. Looking ahead, we expect the strong traction in earnings to continue owing to robust growth in loan book, moderate credit cost and healthy margins. Valuing standalone entity at 4xFY19E adjusted BV and expecting subsidiaries to fetch Rs257/share after deducting holding company discount of 15%, we maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock with an unrevised Target Price of Rs1,144.

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Emami - 2QFY18 Result Update - Strong Show; Maintain BUY

Following a disappointing performance in 1QFY18 due to GST overhang, Emami has posted an encouraging set of numbers in 2QFY18. While its consolidated reported sales grew by 9.7% YoY to Rs6.3bn, the underlying revenue grew by 14% YoY excluding the accounting changes post GST. While EBITDA increased by 15% YoY to Rs2bn, net profit surged by 49.7% YoY to Rs986mn. 

We estimate Emami to post 12.3% revenue and 17.2% earnings CAGR through FY17-19E. We believe that Emami would sustain the growth momentum in coming quarters on the back of good monsoons, increased focus on direct distribution, strong new product pipeline and lower base effect. We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock with a revised Target Price of Rs1,370 (from Rs1,316 earlier).

Smart Recovery in Domestic Business

Domestic business grew by 14% YoY with underlying volume growth of 10% YoY. While international business grew by 22% YoY on lower base effect, CSD channel continued to witness pressure and declined by 20% YoY. While Boroplus reported 38% revenue growth, Navratna witnessed 16% YoY revenue growth led by double-digit growth in volume. Revenue from pain management and male grooming segments grew by 15% YoY and 12% YoY, respectively. However, Kesh King revenues declined by 16% YoY due to significant dependence on wholesale channel. Healthcare segment too witnessed a subdued 2% YoY growth due to low off-take in Pancharistha.

Margins Remain Benign

Consolidated gross margins declined by 40bps YoY to 67.3%, which is impressive in our view, considering sharp spike in prices of Mentha Oil. Although A&P spend remained flat at Rs988mn, underlying A&P (excluding GST accounting changes) increased by 10%. Thus, the resultant EBITDA margins rose by 150bps YoY to 32.1%.

Other Key Highlights

The Management continues to focus on improving its direct distribution reach from current level of 7.9 lakh outlets to 8.3 lakh outlets by Mar’18. Notably, approximately 75% of re-stocking has been made at trade level post GST disruption. New product pipeline remains strong and the Management would continue to aid the brands through higher A&P spend. Although Mentha oil prices have increased, the prices of overall input basket remains under control.

Outlook & Valuation

We expect Emami to benefit substantially from good monsoon as it derives ~50% of its domestic revenues from the rural areas. Also, higher focus on direct distribution reach would aid overall growth. This coupled with market leadership in all flagship brands, robust pricing power and strong new product funnel should hold Emami in good stead in the coming quarters. Based on expected adjusted EPS of Rs35.5, the stock currently trades at reasonable PE ratio of 33.8x FY19E earnings. We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock with a revised Target Price of Rs1,370 (from Rs1,316 earlier).

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Mindtree - 2QFY18 Result Update - Revenue below Estimate

Mindtree has posted lower-than-expected revenue in 2QFY18. Its USD revenue grew by 3% QoQ to US$206.2mn (+2.1% QoQ in CC terms) vs. our estimate US$211.4mn. The lower-than-expected show on revenue front can be attributed to poor performance of subsidiary Magnet 360 (US$4.5mn, -30% QoQ), even as Bluefin saw a strong recovery (>20% QoQ to US$8.9mn). Vertical-wise, MFG, CPG & Retail vertical grew by a healthy 6.8% QoQ in USD terms, while Travel & Hospitality saw a strong 4.3% QoQ growth. BFSI and Technology, Media & Services both grew by 1.4% QoQ. Despite the impact of wage hike, EBITDA margin expanded by 44bps QoQ led by lower visa cost and operational efficiency. Notably, the Management has maintained its earlier growth expectation of “higher single digit” in CC terms for FY18E. 

Volumes, Pricing both Pull their Weight

From volume and pricing perspective, Mindtree’s blended volume rose by 1.8% QoQ, while blended pricing grew by 1.2% QoQ. While onsite volume declined by 0.3% QoQ, offshore volume grew by 2.4% QoQ. Onsite and offshore pricing grew by 2.6% QoQ and 1.4% QoQ, respectively. 

Mindtree added a gross of 856 employees in 2QFY18, while on a net basis, it added 349 people to its rolls. Mindtree’s total headcount stood at 16,910 as of 2QFY18-end. Notably, employee utilisation saw a rise, with ex-trainee utilisation rising to 74.6% (from 73.8% in 1QFY18).

Outlook & Valuation

While Bluefin witnessed an improved performance, Mindtree’s other subsidiary Magnet 360 continues to face growth challenges. The Management has maintained the earlier growth outlook given post 1QFY18 result, which implies CC revenue growth in “higher single digit” as against “low double digit” growth envisaged at the beginning of FY18. Margin expansion efforts remain work-in-progress at this point. We believe it will be a challenge for Mindtree to achieve revenue growth along with margin expansion especially considering the current challenging business environment. The Management intends to consistently use share buy-back method as part of its capital allocation policy, which could prevent major stock price downside, in our view. We believe valuation at 15.5x FY19E EPS is too steep and unjustified. In our view, the recent run-up in the stock price is not backed by a major improvement in business fundamentals. Thus, we retain our REDUCE recommendation on the stock with an unchanged Target Price of Rs480.

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Ambuja Cements - 3QCY17 Result Update - Soft Quarter; Expecting Traction Ahead

Ambuja Cements (ACL) has delivered a dismal operating performance during the quarter, with its reported EBITDA growing by 10% YoY to Rs3.2bn vs. our estimate of Rs3.9bn. While all components of operational cost came broadly in-line with our estimates, a significant surge in raw material cost (+107% YoY and +18% QoQ) dragged its operating performance, owing to reversal of Rs446mn relating to contribution towards DMF following Supreme Court’s order. Adjusting for this, ACL’s EBITDA grew by 25% YoY to Rs3.6bn. EBITDA/tonne came in at Rs628 vs. Rs629 and Rs1,010 in 3QCY16 and 2QCY17, respectively. Notably, sales volume grew by 10% YoY (-17% QoQ) to 5.04mnT mainly aided by favorable demand in Northern and Eastern markets and lower base effect. Though reported performance slipped our estimates owing to reversal of Rs446mn, we continue to believe that ACL is likely to gain traction ahead with the pick-up in demand and likely synergies from group restructuring. We have marginally tweaked our EBITDA estimate by 1% and 3% for CY17E and CY18E, respectively mainly to factor in surging fuel prices. Rolling over our valuations to CY19E, we upgrade our recommendation on the stock to BUY from HOLD with a revised Target Price of Rs320 (from Rs265 earlier). 

Better Volume Aids Yearly Revenue

ACL’s revenue grew by 14% YoY to Rs22.8bn mainly due to 10% YoY growth in sales volume to 5.04mnT (-17% QoQ) on the back of decent demand scenario in Northern and Eastern (barring Bihar) regions. Further, average realisation/tonne came in-line at Rs4,528 (+4% YoY and -3% QoQ). Notably, ACL could not book Rs380mn towards VAT incentive due to pending notification from state governments for continuity of scheme post GST roll-out.

Higher Input Cost Drags Operating Performance

A higher-than-estimated spike in raw material cost mainly due to reversal of Rs446mn (as the Supreme Court disposed ACL’s special leave petition relating to contribution towards DMF) dragged ACL’s operational performance as EBITDA grew by a mere 10% YoY to Rs3.2bn (-48% QoQ). Adjusted EBITDA grew by 25% YoY to Rs3.6bn. Operating cost/tonne rose by 4.6% YoY and 7.1% QoQ to Rs3,899 owing to spike in fuel prices. Looking ahead, we expect ACL’s operational performance to improve owing to likely increase in realisation and higher utilisation.

Outlook & Valuation

Looking forward, we expect ACL to get decent traction on the back of strong brand equity, premium product portfolio and value-based pricing coupled with expected pick-up in demand. Further, with the recent addition of new mining leases through e-auction, we believe that ACL is serious to add new capacity and regain market share, which bodes well for the Company. Further, successful completion of group restructuring and likely merger with ACC may aid ACL to improve its operating synergies, going forward. Rolling over our valuations to CY19E, we upgrade our recommendation on the stock to BUY from HOLD with a revised Target Price of Rs320 (13x CY19E EBITDA).

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HCL Technologies - 2QFY18 Result Update - Subdued Show

HCL Technologies (HCLT) has reported a subdued performance in 2QFY18. Coming in below our estimates by 1%, its USD revenue grew by 2.3% QoQ (+0.9% QoQ in CC terms), with the under-performance coming on account of decline in India business, which adversely impacted revenue by US$20mn. Adjusted for this, USD revenue grew by 3.4% QoQ (+1.8% in CC terms). EBIT margin also came in below our estimate by 81bps owing to lower-than-expected revenue growth. However, the IT major has maintained its revenue growth and margin estimates for FY18E, with EBIT margin to be in 19.5-20.5% range and CC revenue growth guidance at 10.5-12.5%.

Engineering Services emerged as the key growth driver, clocking a healthy 4.7% QoQ growth in USD revenue (+4.4% in CC terms). The key IMS segment saw a 2.1% QoQ growth in USD revenue (-0.2% QoQ in CC terms). Continued decline in attrition in Software Services segment to 15.7% (vs. 16.2% in 1QFY18) is a positive, in our view.

Guidance Reiteration – A Positive Factor

Led by lower revenue from India business, HCLT’s USD revenue grew by a muted 2.3% QoQ (+0.9% QoQ in CC terms), However, maintenance of its earlier 10.5-12.5% CC revenue growth guidance for FY18E is a positive sign, which implies decent traction in ensuing quarters. We continue to remain positive on HCLT’s better-than-peers growth outlook, particularly in context of a challenging business environment.

From vertical perspective, Financial Services (+2.7% QoQ in USD terms) and Manufacturing (+3.8%) witnessed better traction. On the other hand, Retail & CPG (+0.2% QoQ) and Public Services (-1.4%) saw pressure owing to challenges being faced in the former and volatile nature of the latter, which led to revenue decline. Geographically, Europe was the out-performer with a robust 8.7% QoQ growth in USD terms, while the Americas grew by 1.7% QoQ. The RoW witnessed a steep 11.2% QoQ revenue dip owing to weak India business.

Outlook and Valuation – Highest growth among top-tier IT, BUY stays

We expect HCLT to out-perform top-tier peers in FY18E in terms of growth. While the IT major’s strong positioning in the high potential engineering services business will drive growth, the recent focus on IP partnerships is likely to change the nature of its balance sheet and investment requirements, apart from increasing amortisation, thus impacting EPS. Nonetheless, we believe underlying growth will take care of these factors. Valuation at 12.9x FY19E EPS leaves room on the table for investors. We retain our BUY rating on HCLT, with a revised target price of Rs1,000 (Rs1,030), as we slightly reduce our EPS estimates post the lower-than-expected performance in 2QFY18.

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Hindustan Unilever - 2QFY18 Result Update - Secular Growth Story in Place

In line with our estimates, Hindustan Unilever (HUL) has posted an impressive set of numbers in 2QFY18. While net sales increased by 6.5% YoY to Rs82bn on the back of 4% volume growth, EBITDA surged by 19.7% YoY to Rs16.8bn aided by 230bps YoY expansion in EBITDA margins to 20.2%. Notably, net profit – before exceptional items – grew by 14.2% YoY to Rs12.4bn, in line with our estimate. Adjusted for accounting adjustment for GST, underlying domestic consumer business witnessed an encouraging 10% YoY growth in value terms. 

We expect HUL to post revenue and earnings CAGR of 10.9% and 18.3%, respectively through FY17-19E. Though the valuations appear to be high at 46.2x FY19E earnings, we believe that HUL will sustain such high multiples on the back of recovery in volume growth, continued premiumisation strategy, expansion in margin profile and long-term benefits of GST. Hence, we maintain our BUY recommendation the stock with a revised Target Price of Rs1,429 (from Rs1,295 earlier).

Broad-based Growth in the Quarter

Underlying volume growth stood at 4% in 2QFY18 vs. flat volume growth witnessed in 1QFY18. The Management stated that transition to GST adversely impacted early part of the quarter with demand normalising towards the latter part. Further, the wholesale and CSD channels are stabilising at a gradual pace. HUL has undertaken price reduction to the tune of 3-4% to pass on the benefit of lower taxes to the consumers post GST. On comparable basis, while Home Care revenue increased by 13% YoY, Personal Care revenues grew by 8% YoY.

Margins Continue to Move Northwards

HUL’s gross margins improved by 360bps YoY to 52.1% aided by continued premiumisation trend and stable input costs, although the input prices have increased on QoQ basis. A&P spend for the quarter grew by 20% on absolute basis to Rs10.2bn and rose by 140bps to 12.5% of sales, to support new brands like Ayush. Continued focus on cost rationalisation resulted in 80bps YoY decline in other expenses to 15.1%.

Outlook & Valuation

We expect HUL to report net sales of Rs340.8bn/Rs385.1bn and net profit of Rs50.2bn/Rs59.4bn in FY18E and FY19E, respectively. Continued strategy of premiumisation and cost rationalisation are expected to result in 240bps improvement in margins from 17.4% in FY17 to 19.8% in FY19E. Based on expected EPS of Rs27.5, the stock currently trades at 46.2x FY19E earnings. We expect HUL to sustain these multiples on the back of revival in volume growth, benefits of GST and strong margin trajectory. Hence, we maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock with a revised Target Price of Rs1,429 (from Rs1,295 earlier).

Other 2QFY18 Result Updates -: 

• 2QFY18 Result Updates ITC YES Bank
• Q2FY18 Result updates Hdfc bank Asian paints

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