2QFY18 Result Updates - Cyient,Ramco Cements,Apollo Tyres,Ajanta Pharma,HDFC,JSW Steel and Sagar Cements

Cyient - 2QFY18 Result Update - Impressive 2Q All-Round

Cyient’s revenue grew by 6.8% QoQ and crossed US$150mn in 2QFY18, exceeding our estimate of 6.2% QoQ growth led by healthy 4.3% QoQ and 33.7% QoQ growth in core and DLM business, respectively. Consistency in core business growth metrics is heartening, in our view especially with 4.3% QoQ growth following 3% QoQ/3.3% QoQ growth in 1QFY18/4QFY17, respectively. While ENGG business grew by a solid 4.3% QoQ in USD terms (following 4% QoQ growth in 1QFY18), DNO business clocked a strong 4.2% QoQ growth in 2QFY18. The DLM business saw a robust 33.7% QoQ USD revenue growth, which is a healthy recovery after the steep 26% QoQ dip in 1QFY18. On a YoY basis, DLM rose by a strong 17.4%.

Cyient maintained its FY18 growth outlook, with double-digit growth likely in services business, 20% growth in DLM, 50bps EBITDA margin expansion and double-digit earnings growth.

Key Verticals Drive Growth

Aided by higher utilisation, Cyient’s revenue surged 6.8% QoQ to US$150.1mn. Implied volume rose by a robust 5.2% QoQ, while implied pricing dipped 0.9% QoQ. In core services, Transportation (+11.2% QoQ), Industrials (+5.5%) Medical & Healthcare (+14.7%) and Communications (+7%) were the key verticals that drove growth. Led by strong revenue and operational efficiency, Cyient’s EBITDA margin rose by 181bps QoQ, which drove a healthy 26.9% QoQ growth in PAT to Rs1.1bn.

However, some near-term headwinds being faced by Cyient’s largest customer, UTC owing to work load rebalancing is a prime concern, which the Management expects to return to growth from 1QFY19 onwards. Another negative was decline in order book, which fell 28.1% QoQ in terms of orders executable within FY18. However, management believes its order backlog remains healthy, and 2HFY18 should see a rebound in order book growth.

Outlook & Valuation

At CMP, the stock trades at a PE of 12.1x FY19E EPS, which we believe to be reasonable given healthy core business metrics, margin expansion, strong traction in most verticals, strong client relationships, decent dividend yield, quality balance sheet and healthy EPS growth (18.9% CAGR) over FY17-FY19E. We retain our BUY recommendation on the stock with an upward revised Target Price of Rs605 (Rs565 earlier), as we slightly raise our FY19 EPS estimate by 5.6%
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Ramco Cements - 2QFY18 Result Update - Better Realisations Drive Healthy Performance

Ramco Cements (RCL) reported a better-than-estimated operating performance (though down on YoY) in 2QFY18, mainly aided by higher volume and better realisation. Reported EBITDA stood at Rs2.6bn (-14% YoY and +5% QoQ), which came above the expectation. Sales volume grew by 6% YoY (flat on QoQ basis) to 2.15mnT mainly aided by decent demand scenario in Eastern and AP/Telangana markets. RCL has been consistently increasing its sales volume in Eastern region. Operating cost/tonne surged by 9% YoY and 4% QoQ to Rs3,554 mainly due to substantial increase in Power & Fuel/tonne to Rs802 (+36% YoY and +3% QoQ) and freight cost/tonne (+11% YoY and +5% QoQ). Exhaustion of low-cost petcoke inventory and new purchase at higher price led to spike in fuel prices. Cement EBITDA/tonne at stood at strong Rs1,229 in 2QFY18 vs. Rs1,509 in 2QFY17 and Rs1,173 in 1QFY18. EBITDA margins stood at 25.7% in 2QFY18 vs. 31.6% reported in 2QFY17. Upgrading our EBITDA estimate by 7% and 9% for FY18E and FY19E, respectively to factor in higher realisation and better volume, we reiterate our BUY recommendation on the stock with an upwardly revised Target Price of Rs810 (from Rs760 earlier). 

Higher Sales Volume Aided Revenue Growth

RCL’s consistent endeavour to target markets beyond Southern region paid off in terms of better-than-estimated sales volume growth (+6% YoY to 2.15mnT) and also led to healthy revenue growth (+6% YoY to Rs10.3bn vs. our estimate of Rs9.3bn). However, demand scenario in its key Tamil Nadu market witnessed a significant slowdown due to drought and shortage of sand. 

Operating Performance Remained Healthy

A better-than-estimated NCR enabled RCL to register higher-than-estimated operational performance with EBITDA rising by 5% QoQ (-14% YoY) to Rs2.6bn. Against the expectation of sequential decline, NCR increased by 3.8% QoQ (flat on YoY basis) to Rs4,783/tonne. Notably, EBITDA margin and EBITDA/tonne continued to remain impressive at 25.7% and Rs1,229, respectively, which is unmatched by its core peers. Looking ahead, we believe that sustained effort to improve operating synergies through various means is likely to pay it off in ensuing years as well. 

Outlook & Valuation

We continue to maintain our positive stance on the stock mainly on account of: (a) RCL continues to remain one of the lowest cost producers; (b) consistent de-leveraging of balance sheet started paying off; (c) strong brand equity; (d) expected improvement in utilisation; (e) capacity of satellite GUs to be increased from 4mnT to 7.1mnT; and (f) better return ratio vs. industry. Hence, we reiterate our BUY recommendation on the stock with a revised Target Price of Rs810 (12.5x FY19 EBITDA).

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Apollo Tyres - 2QFY18 Result Update - Soft Performance Though Indian Operation Improves

Apollo Tyres (ATL) has reported a dismal performance in 2QFY18 mainly led by subdued European business, which continued to witness pressure due to absence of volume up-tick and additional start-up cost for Hungarian operation. However, Indian operations reported a decent performance with 18% YoY revenue growth mainly supported by 10% YoY volume growth and 8% YoY up-tick in realisation. While consolidated sales grew by ~12% YoY and ~5% QoQ to Rs34.2bn broadly in-line with the estimate, a significant spike in raw material cost – as a percentage of sales – led to 27% YoY decline in EBITDA to Rs3.1bn. Raw material cost – as a percentage of sales – stood at 58% in 2QFY18 vs. 52% in 2QFY17. Notably, there has been a moderate sequential correction in raw material cost. Subdued operating performance along with higher interest and depreciation cost led to 46% YoY de-growth (+59% QoQ) in PAT to Rs1.4bn. We cut earnings estimate by 32% and 13% for FY18E and FY19E, respectively mainly to factor in higher raw material cost and subdued operational performance. Nonetheless, we expect ATL to witness decent traction, going forward as the Company is investing more in diversified and rapid growth areas. Thus, we maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock with a downwardly revised Target Price of Rs305 (from Rs350 earlier).

Decent Domestic Volume Aided Revenue Growth 

Consolidated revenue grew by 12% YoY to Rs34.2bn mainly aided by 18% revenue growth in India operations, which was primarily supported by 10% volume growth and 8% jump average realisation. Strong domestic volume growth can be attributed to stellar 40% volume growth in OEM segment, while volume growth from Replacement segment was in mid single digit. OEM volume growth was driven by a sudden jump in auto volume post the switch in emission standard to BS-IV from BS-III and transient impact of GST.

Operational Performance Marred by European Biz

ATL’s Indian operations performed satisfactorily during the quarter. However, subdued operational performance of European operations due to start-up cost of Hungarian operations and higher cost continued to drag its consolidated operating performance. Its consolidated EBITDA declined by 27% YoY (+23% QoQ) to Rs3.1bn. Notably, sequential decline in input prices led to QoQ improvement in EBITDA. EBITDA margin stood at 8.9% compared to 13.7% and 7.6% in 2QFY17 and 1QFY18, respectively.

Outlook & Valuation

Despite dismal quarterly performance led by continued pressure witnessed in European operations, we envisage ATL’s performance to improve, going forward owing to steady stabilisation in Hungarian operations and shifting to OEM segment. At CMP, the stock trades at 21.1x and 11.1x FY18E and FY19E earnings, respectively which appear to be attractive. We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock with a downwardly revised Target Price of Rs305 (12x June’19 EPS).

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Ajanta Pharma - 2QFY18 Result Update - Growth Momentum to Continue in Domestic Biz; Maintain BUY

Led by recovery in domestic formulations business and robust performance in African business, Ajanta Pharma (AJP) has delivered a better-than-expected performance in 2QFY18. Its revenues, EBITDA and PAT stood at Rs 5.4bn (vs. our estimate of Rs 4.8bn), Rs 1.8bn (vs. our estimate of Rs 1.4bn) and Rs 1.3bn (vs. our estimate of Rs 1.0bn), respectively. EBITDA margin at 34.0% exceeded our estimate of 29.0% led by better product-mix and recovery in domestic business. Notably, AJP’s US sales dipped 63% YoY to Rs260mn primarily owing to price erosion in base business product portfolio following channel consolidation. Notably, AJP plans to file 12-15 ANDAs with the US FDA in FY18. Domestic business grew by 12.7% YoY to Rs1.8bn owing to inventory re-stocking post GST roll-out and new product launches. Its African business surged by 24.6% YoY on account of strong growth in institutional anti-malaria business. We expect AJP to sustain growth momentum owing to new product launches in domestic market and likely healthy exports post US FDA clearance to its Dahej unit. We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock with a Target Price of Rs1,500, valuing the stock at 25x FY19 EPS of Rs60.

Key Quarterly Highlights

Domestic (34% of Sales) Biz: Above industry growth in domestic business (12% YoY vs. IPM growth of 4%; source IMS MAT Sept’17) was led by growth in therapies i.e. CVS (16% YoY vs. IPM 6%), ophthalmology (16% YoY vs. IPM 8%), and pain management (10% YoY vs. IPM 3%). We expect steady growth momentum to continue, going forward as well driven by improved sales force productivity and new product launches (15-20 products per year). We envisage AJP’s domestic formulation business to report a 12.5% CAGR over FY17-19E.

African (41% of Sales) & US (5% of Sales) Biz: AJP’s Africa sales surged by 24.6% YoY on the back of strong growth in institutional anti-malaria business (Rs1.3bn) during the quarter. Looking ahead, we expect AJP’s Africa business to witness a muted growth over FY17-19E owing to likely reduction in institutional anti-malaria business. While its US sales declined in 2QFY18 primarily due to price erosion in base business product portfolio, we expect a gradual improvement on account of new launches from recently approved products. 

Outlook & Valuation

We believe that AJP’s long-term fundamentals continue to remain healthy driven by strong traction in the US business (post US FDA clearance to its Dahej unit) and above industry growth in domestic business. Its Sales, EBITDA and PAT witnessed 24%, 37% and 44% CAGR, respectively through FY12-17 owing to strong growth in domestic formulation business (22% CAGR) and healthy growth in exports (21% CAGR). We expect AJP’s overall sales to clock 9% CAGR over FY17-19E (with EBITDA margin at 30-31%), while return ratios to remain healthy (RoCE & RoE seen at 30% & 23%, respectively in FY19E). We believe the current valuation (PE multiple of 24.5x FY18E and 20.2x FY19E EPS) offers an attractive entry point. We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock with a Target Price of Rs1,500, valuing the stock at 25x FY19E EPS of Rs60.

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HDFC – 2QFY18 Result Update - Disbursement Growth Continues to Remain Strong; Maintain BUY

Led by robust growth in both individual and non-individual segments, HDFC has reported a strong growth in loan disbursement during 2QFY18. Its overall loan book growth remained healthy at 18% YoY led by continued pick-up in non-individual loan book (+24.3% YoY and +2.6% QoQ) owing to strong pick-up in lease rental discounting and construction financing. Sustained pick-up in growth of high-margin non-individual loan is encouraging, as the share of corporate loan in overall loan book increased to 31.1% in Sept’17 from 29.7% in Sept’16. Reported profit also grew by 15.0% YoY and 35.1% QoQ to Rs21bn led by strong growth in core operating income along with higher dividend and trading income. However, YoY numbers are not comparable, as they include one-time capital gain from sale of stake in HDFC Ergo. Adjusted for the same, its PAT grew by a healthy 14% YoY.

Key Management Commentary

• Individual disbursement growth trajectory began normalising in 1HFY18 after sharp decline in 2HFY17 due to demonetisation, which the Management expects to improve further in 2HFY18. Individual loan contributed 79% to incremental growth in HDFC’s loan book in 2QFY18 compared to 64% in 1QFY18 and 70% in 1HFY18.
• Individual loan book – before adjusting for loans sold in preceding 12 months – stood at 23% in 2QFY18 (15% net loans sold).
• Following a 9bps decline in 1QFY18, retail spread stabilised in 2QFY18 led by decline in BPLR, while overall spread remained stable at 2.29% in the quarter.
• Gross NPA in non-individual segment stabilised in 2QFY18 post sharp increase in 1QFY18, as the Company recognised one of the accounts referred to NCLT/IBC by the RBI as an NPA.
• HDFC’s life insurance subsidiary has launched its IPO at the valuation of Rs582bn and the Company will receive ~Rs52bn (adjusting for IPO expenses) from Offer for Sale (OFS). Post the Issue, HDFC will hold 51.7% stake in HDFC Life.
• The Management has guided that part of the profit from sale of take in HDFC Life will be used to further increase the standard assets provisioning of the Company.

Outlook & Valuation

Visible sign of pick-up in demand for mortgage loan led by improving affordability, attractive incentive from PMAY scheme and introduction of RERA augur well for sustained growth in loan book for HDFC over next 3-5 years. Looking ahead, we expect further improvement in HDFC’s operating performance on the back of healthy growth in loan book and NII. Further, the performance of its various financial business subsidiaries/associates has improved substantially over the last few quarters. We reiterate our BUY recommendation on the stock with an unrevised SOTP-based Target Price of Rs1,995.

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JSW Steel - 2QFY18 Result Update - In-line Performance; Margins to Remain Strong

JSW Steel (JSTL) has delivered an in-line performance in 2QFY18 with its standalone sales volume increasing by 2% YoY and 11.7% QoQ to 3.92mnT vs. our estimate of 3.95 mnT. Notably, JSTL recorded the highest 2Q sales volume. However, NSR fell by 3.2% QoQ to Rs38,153/tonne vs. our estimate of Rs40,879/tonne, which the Management attributed to lower realisation in coated business led by pressure from cheaper imports. EBITDA surged by 33.2% QoQ (+7.7% YoY) to Rs29.3bn vs. our estimate of Rs29.6bn, while EBITDA/tonne grew by a healthy 19.2% QoQ (+5.5% YoY) to Rs7,467 vs. our estimate Rs7,500. EBITDA margin expanded by 369bps QoQ (-264bps YoY) to 19.6% owing to lower overall operational cost especially on raw material front. Adjusted PAT surged by 26% YoY (+102% QoQ) to Rs8.45bn vs. our estimate of Rs7.43bn, largely due to higher-than-estimated other income and lower depreciation cost. Looking ahead, we expect JSTL’s EBITDA/tonne to improve owing to higher steel prices and stable input cost. Hence, we maintain our HOLD recommendation on the stock with a revised SOTP-based Target Price of Rs282 (from Rs221 earlier).

EBITDA/tonne Posts a Smart Recovery

JSTL has delivered a healthy performance despite a sequential dip in realisation. Though the coking coal prices fell by ~US$15/tonne QoQ during the quarter, the same is expected to increase by ~US$5-10/tonne in 3QFY18E. It must be noted that the same increased to ~US$300/tonne in Apr’17 after averaging at US$220/tonne in 4QFY17, US$170/tonne in 3QFY17 and ~US$105/tonne in 2QFY17. Further, though the prices fell to US$146/tonne in Jun’17, it again rose in Jul’17. Meanwhile, the iron ore prices another key raw material fell by ~Rs200/tonne QoQ in 2QFY18. Hence, the per tonne raw material cost declined by 7% QoQ to Rs22,395/tonne. Thus all costs declined in the range of 2.9-17.3% QoQ due to operational leverage.

Outlook & Valuation

We expect JSTL’s margins to inch-up, going forward as steel prices continue to remain firm in global steel markets driven by a surprise demand spurt in China. Moreover, the steel demand in domestic markets is also expected to be strong, which would drive the domestic steel prices further. Despite these positives, the valuations seem to be prohibitive especially following the sharp run-up in the stock price. However, we believe that JSTL continues to be the best bet in domestic steel space due to efficient operations and lean cost structure. We now value JSTL at 7x EBITDA (from 6x earlier) to factor in the positive changing environment. Thus, we maintain our HOLD recommendation on the stock with a revised SOTP-based Target Price of Rs282 (from Rs221 earlier).

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Sagar Cements - 2QFY18 Result Update - Robust Performance Continues 

Sagar Cements (SCL) continued to report a healthy set of numbers in 2QFY18 beating our estimates mainly due to better-than-expected operational performance. Its reported EBITDA surged by 33% YoY to Rs384mn vs. our estimate of Rs329mn. A significant reduction in other expenditures/tonne (-22% YoY and -7% QoQ) and a lower-than-expected raw material prices led to this outperformance. However, surge in fuel and freight cost led to 4% YoY rise in operating cost/tonne to Rs3,288. EBITDA/tonne came in at Rs643 compared to Rs565 and Rs666 in 2QFY17 and 1QFY18, respectively. Net profit stood at Rs85mn as against Rs0.4mn and Rs100mn reported in 2QFY17 and 1QFY18, respectively. We continue to believe that likely improvement in operating synergies from Bayyavaram GU (Visakhapatnam) in terms of change in product-mix, saving in lead distance and improvement in conversion ratio along with likely savings in power cost from WHRS will aid SCL to improve its operating performance in ensuing years. Trimming down our EBITDA estimate by 4% and 3% for FY18E and FY19E, respectively to factor in realisation drop and higher fuel cost, we reiterate our BUY recommendation on the stock with a revised Target Price of Rs1,000 (from Rs1,050 earlier). 

Strong Volume Aided Revenue Growth

In-line with our estimate, SCL’s net revenue grew by a strong 23% YoY to Rs2.4bn mainly due to a stellar 16% YoY sales volume growth to 0.59mnT. A stable demand environment in AP/Telangana supported demand. Notably, average NCR stood at Rs3,908 (+5.6% YoY and -2.9% QoQ). Looking ahead, we expect sales volume to be at 2.6mnT and 3.1mnT for FY18E and FY19E, respectively.

Healthy Operational Performance

A meaningful reduction in other expenditures and lower-than-expected raw material prices enabled SCL to report a better-than-expected operational performance amid spike in fuel and freight cost. EBITDA grew by 33% YoY to Rs384mn, while EBITDA margin expanded by 122bps YoY to 16.3%. However, surge in fuel and freight expenditures led to 4% YoY rise in operating cost/tonne to Rs3,288.

Outlook & Valuation

We continue to believe that SCL is moving in right direction in its key markets with potential of further improvement in operating efficiencies by means of newly commissioned WHRS, new Railway Lines and CPPs. With successful completion of QIP, SCL is currently focused on completing ongoing expansion, which will aid SCL to enhance its market reach and operating synergies, going forward. We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock with a revised Target Price of Rs1,000 (9x FY19 EBITDA).

Other 2QFY18 Result Updates  :2QFY18 Result updates Kotak Mahindra and others

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