2QFY18 Result Updates - HDFC Bank, Asian Paints, Infosys , Hindustan Zinc ,Federal Bank and IndusInd Bank,Bajaj Corp

HDFC Bank - 2QFY18 Result Update - Loan Growth Momentum Continues; Maintain BUY

HDFC Bank has delivered a healthy performance on business growth and operating front in 2QFY18 as well, led by strong growth in loan book, best-in-class NIMs of 4.3%, and higher core fee and forex income. Despite a mere 6.9% YoY growth in banking industry loan, its loan book grew by 22.3% YoY and 4.1% QoQ, led by higher growth in corporate, business banking and retail loan segments. This outperformance on loan growth front with a huge margin vs. the industry is really commendable as it is the second largest bank in India in terms of loan book size. The Bank’s NII grew by 22% YoY and 4.1% QoQ to Rs95.7bn aided by higher loan growth and healthy margin. Core fee income grew by 5% YoY and 4.3% QoQ to Rs30 bn led by strong growth fee and forex income. As a result, its operating profit grew by 30% YoY and 4% QoQ to Rs78.2bn. However, net profit grew by 20.1% YoY (+6.6% QoQ) to Rs41.5bn due to 97.1% YoY rise in provisioning expenses to Rs14.8bn on the back of higher provisioning for one corporate account for which the Bank is in discussion with the regulator. Nonetheless, we are not much concerned over its exposure to one specific corporate account, as the headline NPA, PCR and contingent provisioning reserve continue to remain best-in-class in the industry.

Management Commentary & Guidance

• HDFC Bank has made higher contingent provisioning for one large corporate account on which it has received observation from the RBI in annual supervision audit. Currently, the account is standard in the Bank’s book and the Bank is in communication with the RBI on future course of action. However, P&L impact of any likely downgrade in the said loan has already been taken care of in 2QFY18 credit cost.
• Incremental loan growth primarily came from business banking (+18% YTD & 27.9% YoY) and retail segment (+12.1% YTD & 25% YoY).
• The Management expects system loan growth to normalise in coming quarters, and the Bank will continue to grow higher than the overall banking system growth.
• Cost to income ratio is expected to trend down from current level in coming years led by the increasing digitalization trend and improved product delivery 
• The Bank continues to maintain its NIMs guidance in the range of 4-4.4% for 2HFY18.
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Outlook & Valuation

Despite adverse operating environment, HDFC Bank continued to deliver strong performance on business growth as well as operating and assets quality front. It has consistently been outperforming its peers both in financial and operational front backed by strong liability franchise, low exposure to stressed sectors and superior risk management practices. Maintaining our positive stance on the Bank, we raise our valuation multiple on the back of pick-up in the loan growth and strong growth in core other income. We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock with an upwardly revised Target Price of Rs2,065 (from Rs1,940 earlier) based on 4.4x FY19E (earlier 4x )Adjusted Book Value.

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Asian Paints - 2QFY18 Result Update - In Growth Momentum; Upgrade to BUY

Asian Paints has posted an impressive set of numbers for the quarter ended Sept’17 beating our revenue and earnings estimates by 6% and 2%, respectively. Its consolidated net sales rose by 15% YoY to Rs42.7bn, while net profit (excluding exceptional income) grew by 7.5% YoY to Rs4.3bn. Consolidated EBITDA grew by 13.6% YoY to Rs8bn with the margin declining by 20bps YoY to 18.8%.

Looking ahead, we expect Asian Paints to post revenue and earnings CAGR of 14.2% and 16.4% through FY17-19E. Though valuations at 43x FY19E seem pricey, we expect the Company to sustain premium valuations on the back of strong recovery in volume growth, expected moderation in input cost and long-term benefits of GST roll-out. Considering these factors coupled with a muted stock performance during last one year, we upgrade our recommendation on the stock to BUY from HOLD with a revised Target Price of Rs1,354 (from Rs1,170 earlier).

Smart Recovery in Domestic Volumes

Domestic decorative business volume grew by ~8-9% in the quarter compared to 3-4% in 1QFY18. The Management cited that the transient impact of GST roll-out was felt in 2QFY18 as well with the situation normalising in September, which clearly suggests a double-digit volume growth in coming quarter, in our view. While automotive coatings JV witnessed subdued demand in Auto OEM segment, the performance of industrial coatings segment was satisfactory. Performance of domestic home improvement business was much better compared to 1Q.

Gross margins contract but EBITDA firm

Consolidated gross margins were lower by 310bps at 41.3%. While TIO2 prices were higher by 11% on yoy basis, they have moderated on qoq basis, which coupled with earlier price increases should enable the company to improve the gross margin profile in the coming quarters. Also, with recovery in volumes, we expect higher operating leverage to assist the expansion of EBITDA margins from the current levels. Consolidated EBITDA margins were marginally lower by 20bps in the quarter at 18.8%.

Outlook & Valuation

We expect Asian Paints’ growth momentum to improve in coming quarters on the back of normalisation of trade channel post GST roll-out, good monsoon, stable input cost and imminent up-tick in demand. We estimate the Company to post consolidated revenues of Rs174.6bn and Rs199.5bn and net profit of Rs23bn and Rs27.3bn in FY18E and FY19E, respectively. Based on expected EPS of Rs28.5, the stock currently trades at 43x FY19E earnings, which is still lower compared to its average one-year forward multiple of 47x in past three years. Considering the decisive shift in growth momentum coupled with strong management bandwidth and superior financials, we upgrade our recommendation on the stock to BUY from HOLD with a revised Target Price of Rs1,354 (from Rs1,170 earlier).

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Infosys - 2QFY18 Result Update - Margin Beat Encouraging, But Guidance Cut

Infosys has delivered an in-line performance in 2QFY18, the first quarter post Dr. Vishal Sikka’s exit. Its revenue grew by 2.9% QoQ (2.2% QoQ in CC terms) led by good growth in verticals such as Insurance (+6.2% QoQ), BFS (+2.5%), Transport & Logistics (+8.3%), Life Sciences (+7.4%) and Energy & Utilities (+8.8%). Despite wage hike, EBIT margin expanded by 10bps QoQ (vs. our estimate 73bps QoQ decline) led by all-time high employee utilisation, rise in pricing and operational efficiency, which is a positive sign. However, Infosys’ cut in its FY18E guidance - with CC revenue now pegged to grow by 5.5-6.5% compared to earlier expectation of 6.5-8.5% growth - is a negative aspect.

Revenue Growth & Improved Operational Efficiency – Heartening Signs

Infosys’ revenue came in line with our estimate, with the IT major achieving 2.9% QoQ USD revenue growth, out of which IT services volume growth constituted 1.7% QoQ, while pricing saw an up-tick of 1.3% QoQ. Despite wage hike, EBIT margin expanded albeit marginally by 10bps QoQ (vs. our estimate 73bps QoQ decline), which is a positive sign, in our view. This was led by all-time high utilisation (84.7% ex-trainees), higher pricing and operational efficiency. From vertical perspective, healthy growth in BFSI vertical is an encouraging sign. Life Sciences, Transport and Energy & Utilities also witnessed good traction, with all these verticals cumulatively accounting for ~46% of Infosys’ revenue.

Geographically, Infosys recorded a strong growth in Europe, with 6.6% QoQ growth in USD revenue, while the key US geography saw 2.1% QoQ growth. Following 16.1% QoQ growth in 1QFY18, India saw a 5.7% QoQ decline in revenue in 2QFY18. Thus, volatility remains a feature of this business, which accounts for 3.3% of revenue. Infosys added a gross >10,500 employees in 2QFY18, while on a net basis, headcount reduced by 113, with its quarter-end closing employee base at 198,440.

Outlook & Valuation

Owing to seasonality and industry-specific headwinds, the near-term outlook seems to be subdued, in our view. With Mr. Nilekani at the helm, we expect client attrition to be contained, and look forward to a quick new CEO appointment, given its criticality for driving business continuity. Potential improvement in the US economy, decent underlying growth in key verticals and return of cash to shareholders are factors, which we believe could restrict downside in stock price. We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock with a revised Target Price of Rs1,035 (from Rs1,080 earlier).

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Hindustan Zinc - 2QFY18 Result Update - In-line Quarter; Reiterate HOLD 

Hindustan Zinc (HZL) has delivered a decent performance in 2QFY18 aided by higher base metal prices. Its revenue surged by 52% YoY (+16% QoQ) to Rs53bn (vs. our estimate of Rs53.6bn), while EBITDA grew by 46% YoY (+27% QoQ) to Rs30.2bn (vs. our estimate of Rs29.6bn). Mined metal production rose by 14% YoY (-6% QoQ) to 219,000 tonne due to lower ore treatment. In-line with our estimate of 192,000 tonne, Zinc volume rose by 29% YoY (-1% QoQ), while Lead volume rose by 23% YoY (+9% QoQ) to 38,000 tonne. Notably, despite LME zinc prices (+31% YoY and +14% QoQ), its EBITDA registered relatively limited growth owing to higher input cost mainly coal and met coke. Adjusted PAT grew by 18.5% YoY (+20.1% QoQ) to Rs 22.54bn (vs. our estimate Rs22.6bn) owing to higher tax outgo and lesser other income. Going forward, with mine transition from open cast to underground mining almost over, HZL continues to maintain its guidance of ~30% volume growth over the next three years. Though HZL’s earnings profile is likely to remain strong over the next 2-3 years, we remain cautious due to expensive valuation, which limits any meaningful upside from the current level. We maintain our HOLD recommendation on the stock with a revised Target Price of Rs305 (from Rs 301 earlier).

Input Cost Continues to Move Northwards

HZL’s EBITDA increased both on QoQ and YoY basis. Witnessing a quantum jump, cost of production stood at a multi-year high in 2QFY18 owing to lower average grade following completion of transition from open cast to underground mining. Total cost of production in INR terms surged by 41% YoY (+11% QoQ) to Rs104,338/tonne, which stood at Rs78,447/tonne (+54% YoY and +11% QoQ) excluding mining royalty (linked to LME prices). We believe the same could be attributed to higher stripping ratio, which touched a high of 17 in 1QFY18 compared to normal trend of ~11. The Management attributed steep YoY rise to 74% increase in imported coal price, doubling of met coke price and higher mine development cost.

Outlook & Valuation

We continue to remain positive on zinc prices, led by deficit due to closure of mining and smelting capacities. We have increased our LME Zinc price assumption from US$2,700/tonne for FY18E/FY19E to US$2,850/2,900, respectively. However, input cost is expected to go up due to higher commodity prices largely imported coal and met coke. Further, though we maintain our positive stance on HZL on the back of strong fundamentals of zinc compared to other base metals and the company’s quality assets, we do not envisage any meaningful upside in the stock price from current level due to rich valuation. Valuing at 7x EBITDA, we maintain our HOLD recommendation on the stock with a revised Target Price of Rs305 (from Rs 301 earlier). 

IndusInd Bank - Acquisition of Bharat Financial is Long-term Positive 

Acquisition  of Bharat Financial Inclusion has placed IndusInd Bank in a sweet spot. With access to best-in-class microfinance business network along with scale and profitability, we envisage significant upside potential in terms of loan growth, fee income generation and CASA mobilisation, going forward. Further, recent changes in branch licensing and PSL certificate trading norms by the RBI will also help the Bank to achieve the synergy at a faster pace. Swap ratio of 0.64x – 639 shares of IndusInd Bank for every 1,000 shares of Bharat Financial – would result in ~15% dilution. The Bank’s Board has also passed a resolution to issue preferential shares to promoters to maintain their stake at current level. We expect the merger to complete by 2QFY19. Financially, the merger is likely to release capital (due to lower risk weight on MFI loan in Bank’s book), boost earning profile and growth prospects.

Key Highlights for 2QFY18

• IndusInd Bank continues to deliver pleasant surprise with a healthy performance across operational and assets quality parameters. Loan book grew by 24% YoY and 5.8% QoQ. While NIMs at 4% appear to be superior, C/I ratio at 45.7% seems to be best-in-class.
• Loan book growth was led by strong growth in working capital financing to corporate houses and strong growth in non-vehicle consumer loans.
• CASA ratio rose by 450bps QoQ to 42.3% (though sustainability is still not clear), with a sharp 95.3% YoY and 27.3% QoQ growth in saving deposits.
• Fresh slippages declined sequentially to Rs5bn vs. Rs6.1bn, while headline gross NPA and net NPA ratio came in at 1.08% and 0.44%, respectively.
• Provisioning expenses declined by 5.2% QoQ led by lower slippages and healthy PCR of 60%.
• The Bank’s PAT grew by 25% YoY and 5.2% QoQ to Rs8.8bn led by strong growth in operating income, best-in-class C/I ratio and lower credit cost.

Outlook & Valuation

With ample capital in place, we expect the Bank’s loan growth to remain much ahead of the industry, supported by pick-up in CV/CE lending, microfinance book and leveraging of both retail and SME expertise on the newly merged customer base. Looking ahead, we expect the Bank to sustain strong growth in CASA deposits and fee-based income. Its premium multiples are likely to improve further considering the strong growth and operating leverage across businesses. We reiterate our BUY recommendation on the stock with an upwardly revised Target Price of Rs1,875 (from Rs1,716 earlier) based on 3.7x (vs. 3.7x earlier) FY19E Adjusted book value.

Federal Bank - 2QFY18 Result Update - Fabulous Performance on All Fronts; Maintain BUY

Federal Bank has surprised the market for another quarter by delivering strong growth in operating profit and loan book. Its operating profit grew by 22.8 YoY and 4.5% QoQ to Rs5.8bn led by 23.8% YoY & 12.3% QoQ growth in NII. Provisioning expenses declined by 25.2% QoQ led by steady decline in fresh slippages and improvement in upgrades and recoveries. Consequently, its PAT grew by 31% YoY & 25.5% QoQ to Rs2.6bn in 2QFY18. The Bank showed greater resilience on asset quality front with its gross and net NPAs remaining within the Management’s comfort zone. Fresh slippages stood at Rs2.8bn in 2QFY18 compared to Rs4.3bn in 1QFY18.

Management Commentary & Guidance

• Retail slippages remained at elevated level due to stress in its home market i.e. Kerala. Envisaging the worst is behind, the Management expects gradual improvement in retail slippages in coming quarter. It continues to guide fresh slippages run rate at ~Rs2.4-2.5bn for remaining quarters of FY18.
• The Bank envisages loan book to grow by 20-25% in FY18 led by strong growth in Retail and SME segments. However, it will continue to focus on better opportunities in corporate segment as well. Further, the Bank expects NIM at ~3.25% level in next 4-5 quarters.
• Cost to income ratio is expected to remain in 50-52% range till FY19, on the back of aggressive outreach and advertising plan. Notably, about 45% of its new business came from the new clients in 1HFY18. 
• The Bank will continue to focus on further improvement in branch efficiency with continued thrust on expanding digital offerings. Though the Bank does not have any plan to open new branches during 2HFY18, it may revisit the strategy in due course.
• Bank’s NBFC subsidiary has started contributing meaningfully, as it reported PAT of Rs160mn in 1HFY18 compared to Rs250mn in FY17. Currently, FedFina has loan book of Rs13bn and the Bank is exploring opportunities for third party investment in it.

Outlook & Valuation

We believe that Federal Bank will continue to deliver further improvement in operational performance led by improving loan book growth along with changing portfolio-mix. The Bank continues to witness moderation in SMA-2 balance, which clearly suggests fresh slippage during 1QFY18 was more of a one-off event. Notably, the Bank is gradually coming out of the scenario marked with higher provisioning and continued stress on asset quality for last few quarters. Looking ahead, we expect the strong traction in earnings to continue owing to robust growth in loan book, moderate credit cost and healthy margins. We reiterate our BUY recommendation on the stock with an upward revised Target Price of Rs150 (from Rs125 earlier) based on 2.3x (vs. 2.1x earlier) FY19E Adjusted book value.

Bajaj Corp - 2QFY18 Result Update - Early Offshoots of Demand Recovery

Bajaj Corp has reported an encouraging set of numbers in 2QFY18, especially on the volume front. Its overall volume grew by 5.1% YoY, while the flagship Almond Drops Hair Oil (ADHO) volume grew by 6.5% YoY, marking the highest growth in the past 8 quarters. While net sales grew by 3.7% YoY to Rs2bn, EBITDA and net profit declined by 13% YoY to Rs583mn and Rs507mn respectively, which can be attributed to higher A&P and employee cost. 

Looking ahead, we expect the growth momentum to improve on the back of major recovery in rural demand post normal monsoon, stabilisation of trade post GST roll-out, increased focus on direct distribution and return of pricing power. Expecting 10.6% revenue and 11.2% earnings CAGR through FY17-19E, we maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock with a revised Target Price of Rs519.

Volumes Rebound after 8 Weak Quarters

Bajaj Corp’s overall volume grew by 5.1% YoY with flagship ADHO rising by 6.5% YoY. Notably, it has been able to increase its volume and value market share by 40bps and 20bps to 58.3% and 60.9%, respectively during Jan-Aug’17 period compared to Jan-Aug’16 period.

Continued Focus on Direct Distribution

The Company has been able to reduce its dependence on wholesale trade to 40% from 50% earlier, which it expects to come down further in coming quarters. It continues to focus on enhancing its direct distribution network and expects no major change in cost of distribution, as higher expense on direct distribution will get offset by discount provided to the wholesalers.

EBITDA Margins Bottomed Out

Gross quarterly margins rose by 60bps YoY to 67%. Although LLP prices increased by 16% YoY, they dipped by 11% QoQ. The prices of vegetable oil declined 7% YoY. The Management stated that the Company has a forward cover for LLP till Dec’17. Employee cost surged by 32.4% to Rs194mn, which is attributable to thrust on strengthening the second line of leadership. Although A&P spend rose by 230bps YoY to 16% of sales, the Management expects this to moderate in coming quarters. The resultant EBITDA margins declined 560bps YoY to 28.6%.

Outlook & Valuation

We expect the Company to report revenue of Rs8.4bn and Rs9.7bn and net profit of Rs2.4bn and Rs2.7bn in FY18E and FY19E, respectively. Based on expected EPS of Rs18.5, the stock trades at 23.7x FY19E earnings, which is at a substantial discount to the sector multiples. Looking ahead, we expect the volume growth trajectory to improve on the back of recovery in rural demand, trade stabilisation post GST roll-out and higher focus on direct distribution. Margin trajectory is also set to enhance as we expect some pricing action in coming quarters since the Company has not undertaken any price hike in past 10 quarters. We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock with a revised Target Price of Rs519, based on 26x Sep’19 EPS of Rs20.

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